See the full Kyusho 2024 banzuke here
To start out, let's take a look at how our predictions went for the Aki basho in September.
+ I said Terunofuji probably wouldn't fight, and I was right.
+ I said Takakeisho probably couldn't get 10 wins to hang on to ozeki, and I was right. I also speculated that, because he had been ozeki for 5 years, he probably wouldn't want to take time off to get surgery and heal up and then fight back up through the ranks and would likely retire instead, and I was right again. I'm sad, because Takakeisho has been my favorite since I started watching sumo, but also kinda happy because he can finally get healthy. He'll be a good oyakata and raise lots of new battle hamsters.
+ I said that it was Hoshoryu and / or Kotozakura's time to shine, since the former top guys were out, but I also said Onosato also had to be considered a favorite for the cup and would also be promoted to ozeki if he did win. Well, Hosh and Quads kind of let us down in September, but Onosato won and is our newest ozeki.
+ I said Takanosho was going to fall back to Earth after his stunning run in July, and I was right.
+ I said Wakatakakage was going to put up a big number at Maegashira 7, and was right again.
So I think I did pretty well overall, right? Now onto my predictions for Kyushu.
Contenders
Unsure if Terunofuji will show up for this one or not. As of this writing he hasn't really been practicing as he's still recovering from his various injuries plus his diabetes has been flaring up again. If he shows up I don't really expect him to make it the full 15 days. I think him resting and coming back as strong as possible in January to play gatekeeper and / or crown Onosato is more likely.
The ozeki trio of Hoshoryu, Kotozakura, and Onosato have to be counted as the favorites. Onosato in particular, as long as he doesn't suffer a double hangover after his win in September and subsequent ozeki promotion, really seems like the guy to beat.
Kirishima also has to be considered a favorite as he seems to have recovered from whatever injury (and mental trauma from getting yeeted off the dohyo by Terunofuji in January) he was struggling with and looked great in September with 12 wins. He's technically on an ozeki run, and 13 wins in Kyushu would give him 33 over the last three tournaments, but they might make him wait until January as he started this run with a "weak" 8 wins in July, which usually doesn't count. If he gets 13-14 and wins the cup, they might bump him back up to ozeki, but I'm leaning toward them making him wait another basho regardless.
Wakatakakage is in the joi again at Maegashira 2e so we'll see how he fares fighting a full schedule against the top guys. He has looked great so far in his comeback and can beat all of the sanyaku, including Onosato, so don't be surprised if he's in the hunt heading into the second weekend.
The only other legit contender that I can see is Takerufuji. It was unfortunate that he got hurt during his Makuuchi debut yusho in March and had to slide back down to Juryo for a bit, but he has looked phenomenal when he's healthy. He's all the way down at Maegashira 16, so he's definitely going to put up a big win total the first 10 days or so before they match him up against the other contenders. The yusho very well may come down to Takerufuji vs. Onosato and it's going to be amazing.
The Rest
The rest of the banzuke is just kind of, uh, thanks for showing up, everyone. For the first time in a good 5-years, it's looking like there are some truly dominant rikishi and everyone else is just sort of along for the ride. I've enjoyed this era of parity, outside of Terunofuji winning when he's actually healthy I mean, but I'm looking forward to seeing a couple of young guys really take over. It's going to be exciting and I can't wait, not just to see what happens in this tournament, but how sumo is going to look a year or three from now.
The only other thing I'll say is Nabatame is back in juryo! Hopefully he learned from his struggles the first time and can hang around a little longer.
Bonus Kachi Clash Picks!
- Onosato
- Kirishima
- Wakatakakage
- Takayasu
- Takerufuji
This was one of the easiest sets of picks I've made for Kachi Clash. It's four guys I consider contenders for the yusho along with Takayasu who should feast on mid-rankers until they put him against the top guys and reality sets in.
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