The purpose of this article isn't to go over the methodology of how the rankings were put together or argue who should be where. It is instead to just give my thoughts on how I expect certain rikishi to perform based on their rank.
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Sanyaku
Up at the top, it's pretty clear. A healthy Terunofuji can / should win if he shows up. Even at 80% he's better than almost everyone in the top division. But is he healthy? Who knows.
I expect Takakeisho to get his 8 and retain his ozeki rank. Again, if he's even 80% I think he gets his 8. Maybe not more than 8, but he'll get his 8. If his neck is feeling good, the sky is the limit. He did win twice in 2023, after all.
I'm personally rooting for a Hoshoryu-sho, to be honest. Hosh is probably my favorite rikishi right now (neck and (no) neck with Takakeisho) and he's due for another win. If he can get out of his own head and not overthink too much against lesser opponents, which he always seems to do at least 3x per basho ... he should be good.
I'm also expecting Kirishima to get 10 and get back to ozeki. He's too good to just totally lay an egg like has so far in 2024. At the same time, though, I'm kind of hoping he doesn't. It's incredible how he went from "definitely the next yokozuna" (according to some not me people) to losing ozeki in just a few months. I know it's petty, but people shit talked Takakeisho last year when he had two chances at yokozuna and didn't make it (one goober on Reddit even said he should retire ...) so seeing the latest flavor of the month crash and burn has been kind of satisfying. Like I said, though, I do think Kirishima will get 10.
Abi and Onosato are both technically on ozeki runs themselves. I don't see Abi getting it - if the rest of sanyaku are healthy he just simply isn't as good as the rest of them. That might be hopium, though, because I kinda hate Abi. Onosato's ozeki run is a sort of half-empty, half-full scenario. His run technically started too low - Maegashira 5 - but if he puts up another 12 or 13 and wins the yusho again there's no way they won't promote him. That would be ridiculous. Just getting 10 without a yusho, though, probably won't cut it even if that would get him to 33 wins and he'll have to wait for September.
Maegashira
The top of the maegashira is interesting. Atamifuji clearly has a ceiling of being in the joi but not good enough to get any further, but he's young and learning a lot. The more experience he gets against the top guys, the better he'll be.
Mitakeumi got massively over promoted because everyone in front of him sucked ass in May. I don't expect him to do especially well.
Wakamotoharu is probably due for another of his patented 10 win bashos and get back to sanyaku. He's another one with a pretty well defined ceiling where he's too good for maegashira but not quite enough to make a realistic push for ozeki.
Skipping down a bit. Asanoyama at M12 can do some serious damage if he's healthy. That's a big "if", though. He hasn't really been fully 100% since he got back to makuuchi and his window for getting back to ozeki is getting narrower and narrower. Unlike most people, though, I didn't really expect him to storm back up the rankings and get back to ozeki and beyond. He wasn't that good when he was there before, if we're being honest, but people pretend like he was the god of sumo that got demoted in his prime.
It's so amazingly good to see Wakatakakage back in makuuchi. He's worked his butt off the last year plus to recover from his injury and might be better than he was before. He sure looked great in juryo in May, at least. Because of his low rank he has to be considered a dark horse to win the yusho. He should have an easy first 10 days or so and then get back to fighting his old sanyaku rivals in the second week.
And, finally, Roga. Just LOL. I kinda don't like Roga. I love everyone else at Futagoyama because of the Sumo Food YouTube channel, but Roga is so cold and distant and bleh. He's never won more than 9 in juryo and definitely isn't good enough to do more in makuuchi. I fully expect him to just bounce between the bottom of makuuchi and top of juryo for the foreseeable future.
P.S. Good luck to my favorite best boy Nabatame in Juryo!
Bonus - My Kachi Clash picks!
Hoshoryu
Onosato
Wakamotoharu
Midorifuji
Wakatakakage
Play Kachi Clash fantasy sumo for yourself here!
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